Nosemonkey's EUtopia

In search of a European identity

February 13, 2007
by Nosemonkey
2 Comments

Sir Patrick Cormack’s deselection

Declaration of interest: I used to work as Sir Patrick’s researcher at the Commons. Though disagreeing with him on a number of aspects of policy (I’m not a Tory, after all), I both like and respect him as a person, and still meet him for a drink/meal every now and then to catch up. I have not, however, been in touch about this news – the following is all my own speculation, based on my (a few years out of date) knowledge of him and his constituency.

Where is the sense of deselecting an MP of 37 years’ service, who is well liked locally, had the biggest swing of any Tory MP at the last election, and is one of the hardest-working and most dedicated constituency MPs in the Commons?

Sir Patrick has never been a party man – voting on principle, not based on what the whips tell him, and never using election material issued from Conservative Central Office. He was also one of those older MPs derided as “bed blockers” last year, when the Tory “A-list” of preferred, younger types was first mooted. In appearance, voice and style he is pretty much the archetypal Tory country squire – the knighthood merely adding to the impression that he is a relic of a bygone age. He is, in short, everything that Cameron’s Conservatives want to get away from in their re-invention of the party.

But despite all this, this deselection can have nothing to do with Central Office. Not if they have any sense, at least.

After 37 years in the House – working from 7am to 11pm six days a week throughout that time, toiling away on the little things that MPs should focus on, like responding to every letter he receives from a constituent within two days at the latest – if the Tories wanted rid of him, all they needed to do was put him up for a peerage and a well-earned rest on the red benches of the Lords, where his constitutional expertise and knowledge of the regulations of parliament would have come in very handy during the next bout of Lords reform.

Instead, by booting him out, it is pretty much guaranteed that Sir Patrick will run again as an independent on a point of principle, much as did Peter Law at the last General Election. Indeed, he’s already said as much.

At the last general election, Sir Patrick gained over 50% of the vote in his constituency. Labour came second with just under 35%.

If Cormack runs as an independent, the fact that a decent chunk of the constituency’s electorate have not had another MP in their lifetimes – plus the fact that, for the constituency if not for his party in Westminster, he has been doing an excellent job – means that he will pick up a sizable chunk of the vote purely on name recognition value. His lack of official Conservative party branding on his election material over the last four decades also means that few people will notice the difference.

In other words, if he can pick up just 15% of the vote as an independent – which he should do easily – then the Tories will lose South Staffordshire, one of their safest seats.

So this was not Cameron’s doing – he’s not stupid enough to throw away a seat so easily when he could get his own candidate in purely through a handy peerage (which few in either the Commons or the press would object to after Sir Patrick’s long service).

This must instead have been local party discontent, for whatever reason. While Sir Patrick has been busy in Westminster (and Northern Ireland, in his current capacity of Chairman of the Northern Ireland Select Committee) during the week (popping back up the the constituency every weekend for Saturday surgeries, as good MPs should), someone has been playing Brutus. Whether that someone is whoever ends up selected in Sir Patrick’s place or not, that in itself will help to tarnish the official Tory candidate at the next election, and prevent them from winning. Nobody likes a back-stabber.

In other words, this is yet another example that local Conservative constituency associations simply do not understand the realities of politics.

It will in turn be seen by Central Office not as a relief for getting rid of a “bed blocker”, but as a worrying indication that they simply have to get the local parties under control if Cameron is going to succeed with pushing through his reforms.

The irony is, of course, that Sir Patrick is precisely the sort of MP that the old-style Tories that Cameron is trying to get rid of would normally adore… But then again, they are known as the stupid party for a reason…

Update: Iain Dale’s launching the Save Sir Patrick campaign. I’m in.

February 13, 2007
by Nosemonkey
1 Comment

A continent-wide Euro round-up

OK, so what have I missed while I’ve been busy?

The Centre For European Reform blog has been discussing the failure of the EU constitution and the need for a new kind of “pro-Europeanism”, in relation to that “Europe’s Story” idea to kick off debate from Timothy Garton Ash (which I strongly encourage everyone to get involved with – could be good, so I’ve made my first contribution).

Also on the future of Europe, the Financial Times’ Brussels Blog has had a couple of pieces on Britain and the EU after Blair (and the follow-up), which nicely update this piece of mine from back in July. FT Blogger George Parker is, however, almost certainly right that “Blair’s critics in Europe may one day look back at his leadership as a halcyon moment in the UK’s engagement with the EU.”

On a similar note, the Open Europe Blog asks whether Peter Mandelson will keep his job at the EU Commission under a Prime Minister Brown…

Also in the world of the EU, there’s been another proposal to revive bits of that damned constitution from French Green MEP Gerard Onesta, but it sounds like even less of a goer than previous efforts. Jon Worth has more – and doesn’t reckon Gordon Brown would ever go for it.

Italian Foreign Minister Massimo D’Alema also has some suggestions for the constitution – largely springing from the desperation of knowing that the EU is currently functioning on rules meant for 15 with a membership of 27 – and has also announced that Italy (under former EU Commission President Prodi, at least) “wants the EU to admit all the Balkan nations and Turkey as members”. Hell, at least that’d mean that Italy’s economy looks better in comparison, right?

Italian Minister of the Interior Giuliano Amato has weighed in to the constitutional debate too, sensibly suggesting “let us not wonder whether we need a constitution. Let us ask ourselves if the questions outlined in Laeken are still valid, if the constitutional treaty provides adequate answers and if new responses are necessary.”

Meanwhile, further east and south, nothing’s changed in Turkmenistan – and although that Economist article was written before the election (“blatantly falsified” according to Pravda), as Registan points out, the outcome was such a foregone conclusion that the post-match analysis could easily have been written weeks ago. The only question is, can the new President ever hope to get as nutty as his predecessor, the god-like Turkmenbashi the Great?

Sticking with the Economist and the former USSR (I’m still in a post-Soviet mindset at the moment, unsurprisingly), Edward Lucas on the opposition to Vladimir Putin, which features an interesting – but important – line about old Alexander Litvinenko: “The Litvinenko murder was a disaster for the Kremlin.” You see, a lot of Litvinenko’s case against the Russian security services for their alleged role in planting the apartment bombs that killed hundreds in Russia in September 1999 and kicked off the second Chechen war is simply that the Chechens had the most to lose from launching terror attacks. Same goes for the Kremlin with killing Litvinenko, by my reckoning. Before his death he was just a random conspiracy theorist. After his death he became a martyr, his death itself seemingly proving that his theories about the murderous nature of the Russian regime were true. (They almost certainly are, by the way, but still – I very much doubt that Putin’s lot ordered his asassination…)

It’s all been kicking off with Russia in the last couple of weeks: Is there going to be a new Cold War? Who can say? Mmassive military expansion never does sound good – but don’t believe the hype…

Back west, the French presidential election is hotting up, with Royal launching her manifesto – but she’s now lagging 4-8% behind, having been neck and neck with Sarkozy towards the end of last year, when I made my prediction she would win… Will the huge surge in voter registration be enough to give her back a chance? Should she even get a chance? Methinks Stanlavisbad may not be the only one starting to think Sarkozy’s the better choice…

Then a bit more on the future (and past) of Europe, as that 50th anniversay of the signing of the Treaty of Rome gets ever closer. Via Kosmopolit comes a .PDF from the European Policy Centre looking at the various challenges facing the EU. Articles include French conservative MEP Alain Lamassoure on “Relaunching Europe after the constitutional setback”, the head of the Paris Political Studies Institute’s European Centre, Professor Renaud Dehousse on “Can the European institutions still be reformed?”, Paul Gillespie of The Irish Times and openDemocracy on “Would today’s leaders still sign the Treaty of Rome?”, and many more. Looks to be an interesting read.

That should do it for now, I think…

February 12, 2007
by Nosemonkey
3 Comments

Back – sort of…

And a slightly new look for the blog to boot – largely because a) the back-end code with the old template was a bit dodgy in places and b) I needed to work out how Wordpress works a bit more thoroughly for some real-world work. If anyone notices any problems, let me know…

Actual content at some point soon, I hope. I’m still a bit drained from the last few weeks, and have a load more work to get shifted this week to boot. What I’ve been up to below the fold, for those who are interested… Continue Reading →

February 7, 2007
by Nosemonkey
1 Comment

Lords Reform White Paper

Sounds like an absolute mess, from its brief introduction just now. The somewhat surprising thing, however, is that in (Tory Shadow Leader of the House) Theresa May’s response to (Labour Leader of the House) Jack Straw’s introduction, I’m finding myself agreeing with pretty much every single word. Wholeheartedly – especially the bizarre Labour proposal of “preferential votes” to force the thing through the Commons… Something which, by the by, they have consistently refused to allow in general elections…

Update: Tory Sir Patrick Cormack’s take on Labour’s proposals – it’s a “constitutional outrage”. Damn straight.

The current Lords situation is a mess. The new proposals (50% elected, 50% appointed, and a reduction in the number of peers as first preference, with other options available) are no real improvement, especially as they seem designed to strengthen the ability of the Commons (i.e. the government) to get legislation through with far less of a challenge than is even now the case with the powers of the Parliament Act (which allows the government simply to ignore the Lords if they can drag debates out long enough).

To add to this, the proposal for the vote on the issue in the Commons has the definite potential to remove even the Commons’ ability to throw out government proposals. In this case, rejecting the various proposals put forward by the government is seemingly not an option for the Commons. By introducing a system of preferential voting, one of the proposals WILL be implemented, no matter how bad. Straw himself effectively referred to the outcome of such a vote being the selection of the “lest bad” option. We don’t need the least bad. We need the best.

Quite what the Tories’ own proposals are, I have no idea. But they are entirely right in opposing this mess.

Not only would these proposals not resolve the chaotic Lords situation, but instead they would further weaken not just the Lords, not just the effectiveness of Parliament in preventing bad legislation from being passed, but also – through the precedent set by this bizarre proposed voting system – they have the potential to undermine the power of the Commons to hold the executive in check. Parliament, in such a situation, would end up the weakest it has been since the early 17th century.

February 7, 2007
by Nosemonkey
3 Comments

*Phew*

I was a bit annoyed last year when I ended up getting lumbered with one of the first of the new “e-passport” things. Not any more – I should have had more faith in our government’s ability to cock everything up. It’s likely to break in a couple of years – huzzah! (Meanwhile, everyone else is going to have their fingerprints taken like a common criminal as from the year after next. Welcome to our brave new world…)

Still stupidly busy by the by – and if anyone can tell me why the sidebar screws up in that first link to an archive page (as it tends to do with certain parts of this template for reasons best known to itself, probably due to a misplaced /div tag in one of the php files, though Christ alone knows which one) then I’d be grateful. Otherwise I may have to do a hasty re-design when I get a moment – which probably won’t be until at least this time next week…

February 2, 2007
by Nosemonkey
4 Comments

“An honour and a privilege…”

Standard language of a soon to be departing politico, you might think. No surprise Blair used is in his interview this morning.

But surely the standard, talking about the public, is “it has been an honour and a privilege to serve them” – not, as Blair phrased it – “an honour and a privilege to lead them”.

A minor, pedantic, semantic point from a long interview, but one, I think, worth making.

While I’m on the pedantry, another minor point: he refused to quit tomorrow because “that’s not a very democratic way to get a [new] Prime Minister”.

Unlike, of course, our current – hugely democratic – system of allowing individual parties to select their leader in whatever way they choose, who is then – if the party as a whole manages to gain a sufficient number of parliamentary seats to form a government (though not necessarily a majority of seats, nor even necessarily more seats than any other party) – appointed to the highest office in the land by a single little old lady (by dint of her being related to some people who were good at fighting wars several hundred years ago…)

(By the by, I’ve been asked to give this a plug, so I will – depite not necessarily endorsing the message – Anyone But Labour)

January 31, 2007
by Nosemonkey
2 Comments

Europe’s story

I’m still mired in an intensive real-world project (all revolving around clarifying the insane complexity of post-Soviet Russian politics, which anyone who’s looked into it even briefly will know is a tough – if fascinating – gig…), so continued light posting here for a bit.

Meanwhile, via Kosmopolit, it appears that Timothy Garton Ash (always interesting on Europe, even if you don’t agree with him) has launched a new project to get up a debate about the story Europe should tell.

By “Europe”, of course, he means primarily the EU. At a period when the EU project seems more confused and directionless than ever, and while secretive moves are being made to revive/revise the EU constitution, regular readers of this blog will know that one of my ongoing obsessions is what the decidedly late-20th century EU can do to make itself relevant again for the 21st century.

Garton Ash’s initial essay in Prospect is certainly an interesting starting point, even if his ideas to weave a concept of “Europeanism” around “freedom, peace, law, prosperity, diversity and solidarity” are somewhat vague, and leave out the single most important continent-wide binding force of “artistic culture”. But he’s certainly coming from the right starting point, with no illusions about the difficulty of the task:

“In this proposal, our identity will not be constructed in the fashion of the historic European nation, once humorously defined as a group of people united by a common hatred of their neighbours and a shared misunderstanding of their past. We should not even attempt to retell European history as the kind of teleological mythology characteristic of 19th-century nation-building. No good will come of such a mythopoeic falsification of our history (“From Charlemagne to the euro”), and it won’t work anyway. The nation was brilliantly analysed by the historian Ernest Renan as a community of shared memory and shared forgetting; but what one nation wishes to forget another wishes to remember. The more nations there are in the EU, the more diverse the family of national memories, the more difficult it is to construct shared myths about a common past.

This is a debate worth having. I only wish I had a bit more time to join in…

January 28, 2007
by Nosemonkey
1 Comment

Blair has lost it – official

Check out this interview. Watch the video. The transcript doesn’t do it justice – you miss the long silences, the ums, the ers, the panicked look in his eyes whenever he’s asked a question, be it about Iraq, the honours inquiry, the Saudi arms deal, his legacy, the infighting within the Labour party, anything. A representative response:

“Yeah but you know, I think most people would accept that at least you know, there’s got to be some process of transition, if you’re saying, cos the whole context in which I was saying that was…”

This is a man so totally out of his depth, so confused, and so mired in a swirl of half-truths and little distortions that he has no possibility of maintaining any kind of control over his own inconsistencies and self-contradictions any more. His only resort when challenged is prevarication, meaningless half-sentences and, ultimately, the unjustified, not remotely backed up with argument or evidence to support it as viaible, statement: “Well I don’t accept that for a moment”.

Like watching a particularly slow and meaningless train wreck. Brilliant.

January 25, 2007
by Nosemonkey
10 Comments

A new(ish) EU blog roundup

Now being full-time freelance, I’ve had a bit more time to find some new blogs (aided by finally working out how to use RSS feeds effectively through the rather good Netvibes). However, I’m about to be heavily embroiled in a fairly major real-world editorial project (of which more once it’s finished – but, hint-wise, suffice to say it’s satisfyingly high-profile and has been in the news a lot this week…), so on the off-chance posting here declines over the next couple of weeks, it’s time to share recent English-language discoveries.

Combined with my Europe blogroll (and the EU countries in the regional expertise blogroll), these should cover all your EU news analysis needs. Some more may also be found in my new blogroll additions section (including a few tip-top recent discoveries with a UK focus). If I’m missing any good ones, let me know – it’s hard to keep track of everything…

In alphabetical order:

Aapotsikko – politics and stuff from Finland, going a while now, and a very handy Scandinavian perspective

Berlaymonster – going for a few months, and already getting up a good rep

Centre for European Reform blog – going a few months, and some good stuff on there

Conflict of Laws – gonig since April, but posting frequency has gone up a lot in recent months – an international law focus

Dysfunctional Jeff – started this week, and tackling the constitution so far

EuroMatt – very new, self-described as “cynical europhilia”, so I think I’m going to like him…

Euro Topics – has been going a while, and not really a blog, but looks useful (wish I’d found it sooner)

The Evil European – been going a while, but only recently discovered – appears to have a similar take on EU matters to my own (so naturally it’s good stuff)

Federal Union blog – campaigning for federalism, with some interesting perspectives

Globalclashes – a wider remit than most of these, taking in pretty much the entire world, and going a while now, but good on European matters

GlobaLab – ditto in its entirety

Jan’s EU Blog – his most recent entry being of a meeting he attended with Wallstrom and Barroso

Kosmopolit – going a few months, and going strong, Brussels-based and pro-EU

Liberty Alone – appears to be very new, but gives the impression of having been around for ages – another with a more global outlook, and top stuff

Marko Bucik – another very new one, looking good so far

Open Europe blog – going quite a while now – thought I’d blogrolled it already, in fact…

Stirred Up – a more cultural focus, with some politics chucked in

The Voice of Europe – from a Czech EU-enthusiast based in York

January 25, 2007
by Nosemonkey
2 Comments

Extraordinary rendition: the verdict

Sorry – missed this yesterday… The [tag]European Parliament[/tag] has yet to vote on the final report following its investigation into CIA [tag]extraordinary rendition[/tag] flights in Europe, but finalised it is (and you can download it from the temporary committee’s website in umpteen different languages).

In short:

“It is implausible, on the basis of the testimonies and documents received, that certain European governments were not aware of the activities linked to extraordinary rendition on their territory… [it is] implausible that many hundreds of flights …could have taken place without the knowledge of either the security services or the intelligence service”

Quick and easy:

  • * 10 EU governments knew of the secret (and illegal) CIA flights, and lied to cover up their actions
  • * Austria, Italy, Poland, Portugal and the UK criticised for lack of co-operation
  • * Also evidence of flights in Bosnia, Cyprus, Denmark, Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM), Germany, Greece, Ireland, Romania, Spain, Sweden and Turkey
  • * Sanctions should be imposed against them
  • * More than 1,245 flights since 11th September 2001
  • * “in the majority of cases [these] involved incommunicado detention and [tag]torture[/tag]”
  • * “[there is a] strong possibility that some European countries may have received… information obtained under torture”
  • * EU foreign policy chief [tag]Javier Solana[/tag] criticised – “Mr Solana clearly knew more than he revealed to MEPs”
  • * Council of the [tag]European Union[/tag] (aka the Council of Ministers) criticised for lack of co-operation
  • * EU counter-terrorism co-ordinator Gijs de Vries: lacks credibility
  • * UK: 170 flights positively identified
  • * Former UK defence minister [tag]Geoff Hoon[/tag]: Criticised for lack of co-operation
  • * UK Foreign Office adviser Michael Wood: Shock expressed at his “torture’s OK, m’kay?” legal opinion
  • * Poland: Singled out for criticism, but no categorical proof of secret CIA prisons in the country

    • More: Deutsche Welle, the Independent, EU Observer, Former UK Ambassador Craig Murray, EurActiv

    The European Parliament’s Socialist Group (to which the UK’s Labour party MEPs belong….) has backed the report, the EPP-ED group has criticised it for being biased and inaccurate, so it may still not get through the European parliament without a fight. A lot of people in a lot of governments want this suppressed as much as possible.

    Not that they really care, of course – it’s not like anyone’s going to be able to force them to act on it…

    January 24, 2007
    by Nosemonkey
    5 Comments

    Another way forward for the EU?

    Following former French Prime Minister [tag]Laurent Fabius[/tag]’ recent sensible suggestions for a multi-tier Europe, over at Cicero’s Songs there’s a report on another proposal, this time from Estonian Prime Minister [tag]Andrus Ansip[/tag] (followed by some musings of Cicero’s own).

    Yep, Estonia may be teeny tiny, but if one of the new eastern European member states is pointing out the flaws of a system they’ve only recently joined, you know that Chancellor Merkel’s hopes of a quick revival of the EU constitution are likely to be shattered without too much ado, no matter how hard she tries. By that stage, if more alternatives like those proposed by Fabius and Ansip are thrown into the mix, we might just end up with some decent options for debating EU reform, rather than a breeze block of a constitution dreamed up in committee by out-of-touch politicos that would still have failed to address all of the [tag]EU[/tag]’s needs, even if it hadn’t been rejected.

    Update: Over at BlogEuropa, an interesting report on the current constitutional confusion, and the various moves afoot to come to a resolution.

    January 24, 2007
    by Nosemonkey
    4 Comments

    Borat does the EU

    If you don’t already love the European Union’s new fascist/nationalist grouping (yep, nationalists from seven countries joining together to promote their belief that their own country is the best – I know…), Identity, Sovereignty, Tradition, then get with the programme, already (background here). This is the best bit of new political entertainment since Robert Kilroy-Silk threw a tizzy and quit UKIP to set up the short-lived Veritas.

    The latest excitement continues to revolve around 23-year-old Bulgarian MEP Dimitar Stoyanov, the step-son of nutty Bulgarian equivalent of Kilroy (he’s got his own TV show and vanity party and everything), Volen Sidorov), and the chap attacked by our own nuttiest of nutty UKIP former-UKIP MEPs and fellow Identity, Sovereignty, Tradition member, Ashley Mote, of being a bit silly for going on the record with anti-semitic remarks.

    It would appear that Mote had a point when accusing Stoyanov of lacking experience and “political intelligence” (even it he is acting rather like the proverbial pot in the process), as the fresh-faced fascist is brazening it out, refusing to retract his claims that

    “There are very influential Jewish. They pay media to form a social point of view in people. They play with economic crises in countries like Bulgaria and grow rich”

    Yep – it’s 1930s Nazi propaganda time, and this nutty nationalist has bought it hook, like and sinker.

    Part of the reason for his current confidence can be put down to our own dear Grauniad, who got him confused with another Bulgarian politician of the same name – which Stoyanov Jr seems to have taken as an indication that lefties are all stupid. What with being the typical kind of loon whose own internal logic is so untroubled by little things like facts and decency, he’s going to take every opportunity to “ridicule” and “show up” his political opponents, nine times out of ten making himself look even more idiotic in the process. This should be fun.

    Think I’m being mean to the poor little fascist boy? Stoyanov has already proved he’s such an idiot that he doesn’t even appear to understand that, erm… if you send an email from your parliamentary account it can, erm… be traced back to you.

    Note to fascists: don’t send emails from your europarl.europa.eu account to every single MEP discussing a female Hungarian MEP of Romany origin when all you’ve got to say for yourself is

    “In my country there’re tens of thousands gypsy girls way more beautiful than this honorable one. In fact if you’re in the right place on the right time you even can buy one (around 12-13 years old) to be your loving wife. The best of them are very expensive – up to 5,000 euros a piece, wow!

    “…Believe me, I’ve seen lots of gypsy women, but all that are at her age are much skinnier.

    “…she already has received one award this year. But wait – for a youth leader? This honorable lady is almost 32 years old for the God sake!”

    Yep – it’s [tag]Borat[/tag] does the European Parliament. It’s about time EU politics had some entertainment again. (Shame they couldn’t have come up with a new act, though…)