Nosemonkey's EUtopia

In search of a European identity

October 6, 2007
by Nosemonkey
1 Comment

Brown’s only error:

Not ruling out an election sooner.

This insane hyperbole (“humiliating retreat”? “cling to office”? “extraordinary indecision and extraordinary weakness”? You what?) shows just how worried the Tories still are. Yes, Cameron made a storming speech at the conference the other day, and yes they’ve had a big boost in the polls over the last week or so.

But the one question the advocates of an autumn general election have singularly failed to answer is: “why?”

There are two reasons to have a general election: 1) The government is coming to the end of its legally-limited five year term in office, and 2) The government no longer has a sufficient majority to see legislation through the House of Commons. That’s it.

Brown has a large Commons majority and a good two and a half years left before he legally has to call an election. So why the hell should he? Because the party leader, and therefore Prime Minister, has changed mid-term? So why no elections in 1990, 1976, 1963, 1957, 1955, 1940, etc. etc. etc.? It’s a nonsense.

Yes, Brown could have called an election to get a re-affirmed mandate for his government. But the time to do that was the moment he took over from Blair. Calling one three months later – after riding high in the polls all summer following a series of moderately well-handled crises and a succession of Tory cock-ups – would smack of dangerous opportunism. For what’s to stop any government from repeatedly calling snap elections when they’re temporarily doing well once that precedent’s set?

Brown should have said more forcefully on taking over that he was going to serve the full term (but you can understand why he didn’t – after all, Labour were elected on the promise that Blair was soon to be going). That he didn’t is most likely because he didn’t think the Tories were so desperate as to keep up the election calls all summer, because – excluding the last two weeks of Tory bounceback – an election at any point in the last four months would have seen yet another Labour landslide.

And as for the electorate? Less than two-thirds bothered to show for the election two years ago – what makes anyone think they could be bothered now?

It’s too soon after Brown’s takeover to see just how similar or different he is from Blair, and I doubt if anyone could tell you what David Cameron stands for. (Hell, I’m more than averagely politically aware, and I genuinely haven’t got a clue about either of them… In fact, I’m not even sure where my constituency’s boundary lies any more, since the re-jig a year or so back…) We all need at least another year of Brown in charge to see the real him, preferably two. And Cameron, lest we forget, is still so new that Brown had already been Chancellor for four years by the time young Dave entered parliament…

A snap, three week election campaign would merely ensure that the public is even more uncertain about which of these two slightly mysterious, little-known figures would be best to lead the country. And uncertainty in politics breeds both apathy and resentment far more than does a Prime Minister deciding not to bow to pressure from the opposition and launch an expensive and unnecessary mid-term election.

October 3, 2007
by Nosemonkey
Comments Off on dLiberation – EU democracy latest

dLiberation – EU democracy latest

Lots of goodness over at dLiberation since my last roundup:

The problem of public ignorance, continued – more from me on the difficulty of asking the public for its opinion on something as complex as EU reform

A real compromise on the EU presidency, part 1 – an intriguing argument for an alternative reform from the Director of the European Studies Centre at St Anthony’s College, Oxford – to be continued…

The cosmopolitan problem – a look at the difficulties of forging a pan-European sense of identity from the editor of openDemocracy’s Our Kingdom

The problems of deliberative polls: Legitimacy – Professor Lupia of the University of Michigan returns with part two of his critique

“The linchpin of democratic consent” – a look from me at the Tories’ odd reasoning behind their support for a referendum on the EU reform treaty (with more to follow…)

The purpose of deliberative democracy, part 2 – legitimacy – Professor Thompson of Harvard and Dr Guttmann of the University of Pennsylvania return with the second part of their introduction to the theories underlying deliberation

October 2, 2007
by Nosemonkey
1 Comment

A rare Iraq post

So, Gordon’s cunningly timed his announcement of troop withdrawals for the day of the shadow Foreign Secretary’s speech to the Conservative Party Conference – who’d have thought it?

But amidst all this playing politics over Iraq – a Blair legacy that neither Brown nor Cameron have any desire to inherit – attention has shifted from the more pressing concerns. British forces haven’t been in central Basra for a good month now, based instead at the airport on the outskirts, and now there’s going to be 1,000 less of them. What little impact they were still having, what little security they could still provide, is being further eroded.

Retreats are never pretty – but why are we leaving so many men and women behind? The Iraqi support workers who have been helping the British army, often not out of ideology but necessity, have once again been forgotten as attention has shifted to conference season and silly speculation about elections and referenda.

But they’re still there, and they and their families are still facing death and torture on a daily basis, with no help whatsoever from the British government.

So, remind your MP about the meeting at the Commons on Tuesday 9th October. Pester them. Get them to go and make a real difference to people’s lives, rather than wasting time on petty political point-scoring at the conferences.

The Iraq war was always going to be unpopular, it’s turned into a disaster – let’s salvage what little moral credibility we still can before its’ too late.

October 1, 2007
by Nosemonkey
2 Comments

EU democracy round-up

It’s begun to get all exciting and hectic over at dLiberation, so what have you missed if you’re not popping over there already?

First, academics being academics, a bit of a fight’s broken out, with the chaps behind deliberative polling – James Fishkin of Stanford and Robert Luskin of the University of Texas – coming back to defend themselves in vehemnet style: part 1 and part 2. More to follow soon – but it’s an interesting debate, and one that goes to the heart of the matter – if you claim a scientific basis for your methods, you need to defend them to scientific standards.

There’s also an interesting defence of EU democracy from Richard Corbett MEP, which makes a good case for the democratic deficit being a myth.

Plus a quick look from me at Margot Wallstrom’s latest calls for a wide-ranging debate on the future of the EU which will apparently have “no preconditions, no taboos”.

Then there’s a nice piece from Giles Merritt of the Friends of Europe on the need for more euroscepticism, with some well-considered arguments that struck quite a chord with me. In fact, it looks like there could well be a long-needed shift towards introspection and sensible, constructive criticism coming in to some sections of the pro-EU community. Which can only be a good thing. I hope.

Finally, for those who still aren’t too sure what deliberative democracy is all about, the first in a series of posts explaining the thing from Dennis Thompson of Harvard and Amy Guttman of the University of Pennsylvania.

More coming soon – including, to redress the balance a bit – something from Nigel Farage, leader of UKIP and co-chair of the eurosceptic Independence and Democracy Group in the European Parliament.

September 28, 2007
by Nosemonkey
2 Comments

General election?

Just had a phone call: “This is a recorded message from the Labour party. How will you vote at the next general election? If Labour, press one. If Conservative, press two…” etc.

No, I’m not a member of the Labour party. No, I’ve never given the Labour party my home phone number. Hmmm…

On top of the “Labour recruiting election staff” story, I’m beginning to think there may be something to the snap election rumours after all…

September 28, 2007
by Nosemonkey
4 Comments

“UK political blogs are rubbish”

So say some people who’ve just launched a pro blogging company with a UK political blog at its heart. Way to get linkage, guys! (Oh, wait… Damn…)

The thing is, it’s true and we all know it. But we’ve all known it for the best part of three years – where have these guys been?

And why are they seemingly ripping off the concept that was tried (and failed so badly the URL is now a generic directory site) with the last attempt at a “pro” UK political blog, Mink Media’s “The Honourable Fiend” (launched in November 2004, briefly entertaining, but soon barely updated or read)? Hell, even the name – “Westmonster” from Messy Media – is reminiscent… (Or have they been reading entertaining EU blog Berlaymonster? Or is it just a stupidly obvious semi-pun?)

Most importantly, though, why do they think that launching a garishly-designed pink blog full of short “witty”, gossipy entries is the way to make money with online political coverage?

“If we were to try and do Wonkettte over here, I think it would fall flat, because the voice is not something that a British audience would respond to… Wonkette is very much a Washington title. I think we would like Westmonster to be more about politics in the round… It’s about making these people [politicians] into personalities,” say the founders.

Hang on, did Tim Ireland have a point after all? Guido – if this is your fault… (Heh…)

Welcome to the world of UK political blogs, chaps – you’ve got some catching up to do…

(Word of advice, though – you’re not off to a bad start, but a decent proportion of blog readers – far more than the web average – use Firefox with AdAware, so your MPU, left-hand skyscraper and top banner aren’t going to show up. Your advertisers aren’t going to be best pleased if readers don’t see their ads, and as a commercial venture, that could be fatal… Know your audience…)

September 27, 2007
by Nosemonkey
Comments Off on More European democracy goodness

More European democracy goodness

First up, a lovely interview with me and openDemocracy‘s Editor-in-Chief Tony Curzon Price, explaining what we’re trying to do, is up now at the Tomorrow’s Europe site.

And now, a handy round-up of dLiberation posts over the last few days:

How to reform Europe without asking the French – an intriguing proposal from reader Alex Burr, and not one that I’d heard before. Well worth a look.

Turkey and democratic majorities – a quick look at the perennial problem of democracy: to what extent should the majority view be followed?

The EU’s democracy problem – an interesting take on voter apathy and disillusionment in the EU, from reader “mcconeb”

The democratic risk – pondering why, despite an EU-wide desire for a referendum on the new reform treaty, most EU member states are not going to give the people a vote

The EU: More democratic than the US? – an argument I’ve made before, comparing the European Commission to the US presidency and cabinet

The problems of deliberative polls: Outcomes – Professor Arthur Lupia of the University of Michigan’s Institute for Social Research launches an attack on the Fishkin model of deliberative polling at the heart of the Tomorrow’s Europe poll. Part 1 of 4.

Reforming the European Parliament – EU blogger and former President of the Young European Federalists Jon Worth has a proposal to make the European Parliament more representative

The problem of public ignorance, part 1 – the first in a four-part series from me, looking at the difficulty of the public reaching informed decisions about the EU

Coming soon, Fishkin responds to Lupia as verbal fisticuffs break out in the world of academia, and Richard Corbett MEP weighs in with a sterling defence of EU democracy.

September 25, 2007
by Nosemonkey
4 Comments

Burma / Myanmar

If you haven’t noticed, where have you been? A mass movement in favour of democracy in a country ruled by a military junta for the best part of half a century is on the brink. Whether it will be crushed with guns and batons or march on to victory, it’s far too early to say.

None of us can have a real effect, but signing this petition will, at least, register your support for those risking their lives for what they believe – something I doubt many people reading this will ever have had to do.

(Hat tip Rachel, who has more details, and Abdul-Rahim for the reminder in what’s been a long and busy day…)

September 24, 2007
by Nosemonkey
11 Comments

The Sun – you what?

The Sun's graphic

The graphic above appears on the Sun’s website today as part of their “Oi, Gordon – give us a referendum on the EU reform treaty or else” campaign.

That it’s full of distortions is unsurprising, but some of these key points appear to be outright lies.

I mean, I’ve read the old constitution, upon which the new treaty is heavily based, and am fairly well up on the contents of the new reform treaty. By my reckoning:

LIES: At no point is the EU given powers to oversee the UK economy. At no point is an EU army (Churchill’s idea, that…) founded. There is no mention of the EU gaining control of health and education. Britain has maintained its opt-out over human rights clauses, as well as over immigration and asylum. Oh, and – even if it may be very similar to the old constitution – it’s no longer a constitution.

DISTORTIONS: Under the terms of the new text, there will be no EU Foreign Minister (merely a powerless foreign affairs spokesman). Even the lost vetoes and diplomatic service thing are, in context, overblown and not as drastic as they are made out.

In other words, out of the ten attention-grabbing items listed in that graphic (the only part of the story most Sun readers are likely to bother reading), no fewer than nine are more or less nonsense.

Ah… Informed debate, eh? Dontcha just love it?

Oh, and please also note that in their report on their MORI poll on the EU treaty and proposed referendum, their figures are different between the pie charts and the text.

In the pie charts, 32% are for, 38% against – a significant six point difference. In the text, 44% are for, 46% against – within the margin of error.

And, as blogging poll expert Anthony Wells notes, those figures could also – rather than suggest, as the Sun does, that a referendum is both essential and going to provide an inevitable win for the “No” camp – show that the “Yes” camp has a far stronger chance of winning than anyone ever expected.

September 21, 2007
by Nosemonkey
24 Comments

On stupid libel laws

It was only a matter of time before Britain’s ridiculous libel laws led to an internet service provider shutting down a bunch of websites in the face of a writ.

But the ISP hosting Bloggerheads and Craig Murray‘s blog, which appears to have shut down one of their servers following a writ from Uzbek millionaire Alisher Usmanov, have been a bit dumb on this one.
Continue Reading →

September 20, 2007
by Nosemonkey
1 Comment

EU referenda and reform

A couple of new posts from me over at dLiberation:

Jens-Peter Bonde and EU referenda, looking at the reformist take of the leading EU-sceptic Member of the European Parliament

and

Giuliano Amato and democratic EU reform, giving a handy overview of the unusual approach of the Italian Interior Minister (and former Vice-President of the Convention on the Future of Europe, which drafted the controversial constitution)