Nosemonkey's EUtopia

No idea how long European Tribune has been going but I only came across it today and it looks to be not only worth a look but already quite popular. Probably because it was apparently set up by a bunch of Yanks who are interested in European politics. It seems to be a Daily Kos style set-up, though whether it’s a Kossack spin-off like New European Times (which has apparently been rebranded, so I should probably update the blogroll) I have no idea.

From there I’ve also come across a (rather excessively sparse) European blogosphere wiki with almost no familiar names and a bunch of people I’ve never heard of, plus Germany-based Sign and Sight – which I think I saw a while back but failed to link. It has an interesting article on The Franco-German relationship which looks well worth a look when I have more time.

Blood & Treasure – the great crusade: fat cows and the dilettante economy:

“Linking the CAP to African poverty has more to do with gaining the moral high ground in the EU�s endless rounds of backbiting than it does with anything going on in Africa.”

Observer blog – Europe, the plan:

“measures to bring EU institutions closer to the people they are supposed to represent”

The French and Dutch rejections of the constitutional treaty and the spat over the CAP and British rebate cannot be separated. Both are � at least in theory � to do with the future of the EU post-enlargement. Both should also, of course, have been dealt with over a year ago, before the expansion to 25 member states.

With last year�s enlargement, the hodge-podge of EU treaties needed to be redrawn and consolidated � hence the constitutional treaty. Treaty rethinks were never as immediately necessary as reform of the financial basis of the Union, but it did seem more likely to be the thing on which everyone could agree, and therefore form the basis of the more important financial rethinks. With the French and Dutch referendum results it turns out agreement even on the political basis of the EU wasn�t possible.

Still, the EU can soldier on under the existing arrangements without too much trouble. But without a serious rethink of the financial base of the Union, chaos and resentment were always likely � with the accession of a number of less well-off countries current CAP payment levels could simply never be maintained. This should have been the first thing to be tackled � not the redrafting of old treaties which, though flawed, still just about work.

The new member states should not fund Britain�s rebate; nor should they fund France�s CAP handouts. Times have changed significantly since both the rebate and the CAP were agreed, and the terms of both should be redrawn to take account of the new situation.

Without the rebate, Britain would end up contributing more than Germany. Considering the countries� relative wealth, this would hardly be fair. But with the rebate, Britain�s net contributions (per capita) are a little under a third that of the Netherlands (47 to 121 euros per head). The UK also pays less net per capita than Sweden, Luxembourg and Belgium. You can understand why they might be a tad miffed. All these countries are � by GDI � less well off than Britain. Apply the same financing rules to the EU25, and the rebate becomes even less fair.

It isn�t just Britain, of course, France gets more CAP handouts than its fair share, so grievances are valid there too. But, and it�s important not to forget this amidst all the rhetoric, France is still a net contributor. More unfair still is the Irish situation, where Eire gets more EU handouts per capita than any other member state, despite now being one of the richest.

But as long as EU countries insist on retaining their vetoes, an agreement is likely to be impossible, as a redrawn, �fairer� financial structure would inevitably be to the benefit of the poorer members and the detriment of the wealthy likes of Britain and France. Without some of the wealthier countries like Britain and France being prepared to make even more of a financial sacrifice, as Germany has already done, it simply cannot work.

Yet whereas Britain�s rebate benefits primarily the British government, France�s CAP handouts go direct to the people and specifically the powerful farming lobby. As such, Chirac is in a far trickier position � any concessions on his part would directly affect the French voter.

Blair, however, can concede the rebate without too much of a financial impact on us voters � all he needs to do is avoid launching any more illegal wars and he’d save the money easily. Britain�s sacrifice could then act as concrete proof that the wealthier EU states can afford to live without the handouts by cutting a bit of budgetary flab at home.

The UK would then also no longer be seen as a selfish and reluctant member of the EU club. Instead France would find itself more resented and isolated as the country which not only was the first to reject the constitution, but also refused to make concessions for the good of the rest of the EU. Britain�s bargaining position, with a weakened France and as one of the principle financial contributors, would then be vastly improved, and the British �vision� for the EU, if such a thing exists, would be far easier to promote � especially as neither Chirac nor Schr�der are likely to be around much longer, and relationships are already being built with their likely successors.

(Note – final two paragraphs slightly re-edited since first posted)

The New Republic (reg. or BugMeNot req.) – Updates From the World’s Tyrannical Outposts:

“we should be paying more attention to despotic lands. But who, in truth, has the time? … We’re pleased to present our readers with a summary of world events as seen through the eyes of Cuba, North Korea, Burma, Belarus, Libya, Syria, and other select dictatorships. Now our readers can stay fully informed with minimal effort.”

The Times – Blair puts boot in over rebate by marching to moral high ground and Forget the gloating, everyone needs to look to the future and Lords have set out map to keep EU on the road

The Guardian – ‘Sharp disagreement’ at Blair-Chirac talks

Blair: “If people want a reconsideration of the rebate, they’ve got to reconsider the reasons for rebate”

Fair Vote Watch – The emerging European demos and Spiked – From Europe to America: the populist moment has arrived

Courtesy of Mr Justin “Chicken Yoghurt” McKeating (not just for the idea, but also the code, and then a fair while of fiddling with my shoddily-arranged template), a brand-spanking-new feature – fancy little boxout things like this in which I’ll be whacking links and stuff to things that catch my eye which I either lack the knowledge or the time to do longer posts on, but which are worth a look. Hurrah!

A breeze sweeps in off the plains, kicking up little eddies of dust in the rutted main street of the ramshackle township. The weather-beaten faces of grizzled onlookers gaze towards the saloon doors. They smash open, and a bespurred foot clumps out onto the boardwalk. A horse whinneys. The wounded gunslinger Mad Jacques staggers out into the glare of the midday sun, adjusts the brim of his stetson, steadies his footing and waits.

The crowd looks on, the faint murmer of their gossip barely audible above the creak of the shop signs. They long for a sheriff, but there is none, not in this place – not since those bad experiences with the Austrian and the Corsican. The winner of this little spat could determine all their fates – but they are rooting for neither party in this fight.

Then the chug and whistle of the noon train wafts in from the distance, getting closer… closer… With a screech and a flurry of smoke it grinds to a halt in the makeshift station. The shootist known only as “Tony” leaps down from his carriage, raises his head and gives the assembled masses a broad, insincere grin. “Hi guys!”

Yep, much like a certain classic movie, the build-up has seemed to drag for ages, the tension is at a peak, and neither of the people the plot revolves around seem to have too much support. But this time, as Chirac and Blair square up, it’s impossible to work out who’s Gary Cooper, as no one seems wholeheartedly prepared to give complete back up to either of them.

Tony’s been chatting up the likely next German Chancellor, but she’s not going to be much help until September. Mad Jaques, meanwhile, has the loose support of Gerhard the German – a rickety former brawler now well past his prime and unwilling to get involved in any more big fights – who’ll probably simply back the winner in a quest for a quiet retirement.

Everyone’s expecting a showdown. But what they don’t seem to realise is that both gunslingers have loaded up with dodgy bullets and their powder’s damp. Rather than either party landing a kill shot – or even winging their opponent – they’re going to have to resort to hair-pulling and name-calling. Both will come away looking ridiculous, and no one will have got anywhere.

Meanwhile, out of the sun at the back of the saloon, some shadowy figures are busy scribbling away, plotting out what to do when impotence and unpopularity finally take the two men squaring off outside out of the glare of public attention and the township can get back to trying to clean itself up.

(Oh, and thankfully European Democracy has picked apart the financial figures so I don’t have to – well worth a look – even though it gave me another headache…)

The more I try and work out how the EU budget could be made “fair”, the more confused I get. I’m going to keep working on it, but at the moment every time I find some new information or a new perspective my brain starts protesting at the apparent inconsistencies and contradictions and I get a sharp, jabbing pain just behind my eyebrows, spiking down through my eyes and curving through to the nape of my neck, where it seems to do some kind of clog dance.

As such, have a gander at a couple of interesting pieces not by me while I crawl off to find some asprin:

• Osctracised from �sterreich on the debate over where the EU should go next.
• Akatsuki Talks Rot on the CAP.

Both have the benefit of not including any numbers whatsoever (well, except for the dates), and so don’t hurt my brain. And considering I’m off to see a preview of Batman Begins this evening I really, really don’t want my brain hurting..

Update – Just noticed a couple of other relatively number-free posts of interest:

• EurSoc puts a nicely sceptical spin on the chaos, but may have a point about the rebate being a distraction
• North Sea Diaries reckons the rebate ain’t all that, girlfriend, and indulges in a bit of a Hapsburg fantasy

This is fun.

Does Chirac’s cheek know no bounds? Blair’s claims that without the rebate Britain would be paying 15 times more than France to the EU (rather than just 2.5 times) are actually pretty much accurate. Yet Chirac still has the gaul (geddit?!?) to say that “Our British friends must be aware of how things are changing and therefore of the necessity of a greater fairness in the burden carried by each (member)”.

So, what’s the likely outcome? God knows.

Chirac can’t do the decent thing and agree to Blair’s calls for a rethink of the entire EU budget as this would mean France would end up having to pay more. He’s just lost a major EU referendum, and the thinking in a number of quarters is that a large part of this was thanks to the proposed constitution bringing about a reduction of France’s overly privileged position within the EU structure. Even though he knows full well that he’s out on his proverbial posterior come the next French elections no matter what he does, he’s not going to be prepared to go down in history as the guy who relegated France to a second-rate EU power, which is how any concessions would be portrayed by his opponents.

Blair, meanwhile, knows that to give up any part of Britain’s rebate would make any future votes on any aspect of the EU even more unwinnable, as even with the rebate there is a lot of resentment over how little cash Britain gets back from Brussels, and how little (especially in comparison to France) the UK gets out of the EU project in general. If our Tony starts giving anything away he’s going to build up an immense amount of resentment which could very easily give the Tories a superb platform with which to get back to power – even if the next general election is four/five years away. The Tories would instantly be able to claim “We won the rebate – Labour gave it away”. Especially considering there are numerous signs that the economy is likely to get into trouble sometime soon, this could be a double blow for a Labour party led by Gordon Brown, who as the guy in charge of our finances would naturally also attract much of the blame.

But there is a chance that more support could come Britain’s way. The Dutch are also moaning about the size of their contributions, and the longer this drags out, the more likely it is that other countries will start to look more rationally at the whole EU budget business. At the moment the rebate is a blatantly obvious, easily identifiable point of resentment, as it must seem odd that one of the richest member states gets such a large lump sum back from Brussels. But if they start to think about it for a moment they’ll surely see that the amount of money France gets through other means is significantly greater in its unfairness. At that point, we could find ourselves with a situation whereby the rest of the EU start teaming up against both Britain AND France, and start telling us both to get stuffed.

Of course, for a numerical illiterate like me it’s fairly hard to work out what a “fair” budgetary system for the EU would actually involve. It’s all overly confusing even to people who understand the thing. Labour MEP Terry Wynne has some handy tables and explanations and the like trying to give an idea of how the thing works. Judging by that, it’s not going to be easy.

The only thing that is certain is that, as two of the richest member states, Britain and France should – by the fundamental logic of the thing – be paying out rather more than the poorer ones. It’s a kind of Robin Hood take-from-the-rich, give-to-the-poor scenario (or dangerously socialist, if you’re that way inclined). At the moment, however, it is – as so often – France which is getting by far the best deal. It is, therefore, towards France that any resentment should really be directed. As I optimistically semi-predicted last month,

“France has continued to hold an influence in excess of her size or economic might ever since the 1950s, and a French �Non� would simply make this even clearer to the other EU member states. They would see France as voting against to maintain her own power, not for the good of the Union – and in subsequent renegotiations, France would find herself with too much resentment and opposition to get her way, just as would Britain.”

The longer Chirac refuses to even consider the prospect of a rethink, the more the irritation with France will rise. While this may not mean that Britain gets her way, it should at least mean that the French are forced into making some kind of concession. If not, it could be France, rather than Britain, which becomes the black sheep of the EU family.

With enlargement, the rebate was always going to have to be rethought. But so was the rest of the EU budget. Chirac is playing a very dangerous game, and one that is likely to backfire. Meanwhile, all Blair has to do is hold out and keep pinning the blame on Paris, and he should be able to sort something out. It won’t be as good a deal as we’ve currently got, but post-expansion it was never going to be.

The comments section of my latest post at The Sharpener (on the British rebate) have been interesting, and the Common Agricultural Policy has once again reared its ugly head. It’s rubbish, and on that everyone – except, perhaps, the French – can agree.

Now Robin Grant has spotted a ray of hope. Could Britain’s rather unusually strong bargaining position actually be put to good use this time? It’s wishful thinking that the CAP could be significantly reformed or abolished, certainly – even that it might be altered to prevent various less developed nations being shat all over by the thing.

But sorting out the CAP is arguably even more important than sorting out the constitution. It’s the EU’s single biggest problem and single biggest error. Before we go charging off trying to set everything in stone it is vital that it is addressed.

Hell, judging by EU-Serf‘s comment at The Sharpener – scrap the CAP and lose the rebate and even a eurosceptic like him would be happy (well, less unhappy at least) – this could be precisely the issue the UK needs to tackle to get over our worries about the whole EU. And it would have the added benefit of pissing off France – which, even for a relative Francophile like me, always warms the cockles of the English heart…

Epolitix.com are getting in on the blogging bug and trying, like Bloggerheads’ Tim Ireland, to get politicians interested.

As of yet they’ve got tit all there and what there is is in rather an odd format, but their mission-statement seems OK.

Still, it seems rather like they’re offering blogging as a commercial service (much as they do with various cheap MPs with basic website building). Which strikes me as rather odd, to put it mildly. Especially as their layout is hardly conducive to the kind of rapid browsing for which blogs are so handy and which is, for me, their main appeal.

Anyway, may be worth a look.