Nosemonkey's EUtopia

February 12, 2009
by Nosemonkey
6 Comments

Breaking: Armed robbery inside the European Parliament building

A bank inside the European Parliament building in Brussels has been robbed at gunpoint. Yes, *inside* the European Parliament building. The robber in question is still on the run – possibly hiding in the EP itself.

Nothing much from the news media yet, so how do we know? Thanks to this tweet from Tony Robinson, Head of Press and Communications for the European Parliament Socialist Group, who followed up with a photo of the search.

Police checking everyone leaving the European Parliament after armed robbery at bank branch. 10,000 people a day visit the EP in Brussels. about 1 hour ago from web

Robinson’s Twitter coverage in full so far, from here (rearranged into chronological order):

Armed Robbery at I N G bank in european parliament. police hunting for suspect. about 1 hour ago from txt

http://www.twitpic.com/1g6a8 37 minutes ago from web

EP bank robber had wig, makeup and a gun. The robber’s coat were found two floors up. Security cameras were not focussed on the bank door. 33 minutes ago from web

Mikhail Gorbachev was attending a conference in the EP today but reported to have left before the armed robbery. 31 minutes ago from web

Robber reported to have threatened bank staff with a gun before making off with cash. 29 minutes ago from web

Journalists complained about tight European Commission security at midday briefing today. EP less strict, they said. Then the robber struck 23 minutes ago from web

European Voice have got a short report up now, so we have confirmation.

I don’t remember EP security being *that* bad last time I was there. But it is a vast, sprawling complex… Still, I wonder what the response will be? Over-reaction or measured?

And more importantly, how big must that robber’s balls have been? Try that at Westminster, you’d likely end up shot…

Update: And now, about an hour and 20 minutes after Robinson’s tweet, more details via EU Observer.

February 12, 2009
by Nosemonkey
4 Comments

The EU, UK and civil liberties

Via the Convention on Modern Liberty‘s Twitter feed and following yesterday’s post on German concerns about the EU being used as a democratic bypass comes news of a worrying development for the freedom of every EU citizen:

People may be aware of the debate in the UK over access to communications data… but are less familiar with the role the UK government has played in the EU, where it first proposed mandatory data retention, backed by France, Ireland and Sweden, in April 2004. The final stages of its passage through the EU came under the UK presidency of the council, and their officials crawled all over the European parliament to get it passed. Despite widespread opposition from more than 200 civil society groups, the EU data protection commissioners and many in the parliament organised an alliance of the PSE (Socialist group, of which they are part) and the centre-right PPE (Conservative group) to steamroller it through in December 2005…

We have good reason to be very critical of the authoritarian direction the government has taken at home, but we should be equally vigilant of what the UK government gets up to in the EU – and at the same time wake up to the fact that many of the threats to our freedoms and liberties now originate from the EU. Indeed, the surveillance society, which makes suspects of us all, is to be the centrepiece of the next five-year plan for EU justice and home affairs to be adopted later this year (pdf).

As the Convention on Modern Liberty tweet noted, “EU law is now a major threat to privacy… And it’s not eurosceptic to say that”.

But, of course, this in nothing new. I noted the Blair government’s attempts to use the EU to force through unpopular changes a few years back, and was disgusted [on ID cards] and outraged [over internet regulation proposals – the first hints of this current unpleasant legislation] at the time. The real problem is, as ever, the governments of the member states and their ability to wrap up such deals behind closed doors at meetings of the Council – combined with a lack of reporting on the EU in the mainstream press that allows major national newspapers like the Guardian to fail to notice such distasteful legislation until it has already been passed, challenged in court, and passed again.

Give the people of Europe more say in how the EU is run, give the European Parliament more power to halt such unpleasantness, then press reporting on EU affairs would become more attentive, such moves by member state governments to abuse both the EU and its citizens would be spotted sooner, and effective pan-European opposition could be mobilised. As it is, everyone only finds out after it’s too late – no amount of attempts to highlight dodgy legislation from a mere small blog such as this one will ever reach enough people in time.

Meanwhile, let’s just sit back and marvel at how it is the UK – that last European bastion against the forces of totalitarian repression during the 1940s – that has been the driving force behind EU legislation that would not look out of place in Hitler’s Germany, Stalin’s Russia, Mussolini’s Italy, Franco’s Spain, Salazar’s Portugal or Vichy France.

Come on, EU – you’re meant to be better than this.

Update: Oh, the irony – the European Commission’s now complaining about people trying to steal its confidential data. What out OUR confidential data, Commission types?

February 11, 2009
by Nosemonkey
5 Comments

Germany, the EU and democracy

The Reichstag with EU and German flags The European Union emerged, as we all know, as a response to the Second World War. One of the earliest aims of the founding fathers was to prevent France and Germany from ever going to war again by integrating their economies so closely that to do so would become impossible.

As a result – as well as, arguably, thanks to prolonged feelings of guilt about what the country got up to during the 30s and 40s – Germany has long been at the forefront of European integration. Germany remains one of the most enthusiastic EU member states – despite also having the strongest economy in the EU, formerly having one of the strongest currencies, paying the most into the EU budget, getting the least back, and being by far the most under-represented (by population) in the European Parliament.

It’s long been the case – albeit usually unacknowledged – that if Germany got fed up with the EU the entire project would be in danger of tumbling down. The EU could survive largely unchanged if almost any other member state decided that enough was enough (hell, if France pulled out it would arguably be improved, as the vast chunk of Common Agricultural Policy money that gets syphoned off by Paris could be redirected to more needy countries – and many more enthusiastic europhiles argue that if Britain jumped ship then the brakes the UK keeps putting on closer integration would finally be lifted, and the EU could reach new heights). If Germany gives up on the EU, all kinds of problems would kick off – not least because the European Central Bank runs out of Frankfurt.

Well, Germany hasn’t yet got the hump, and doesn’t show any signs of doing so just yet – but it could still throw a spanner in the works. Because oddly for a country in which nationalism and national self-interest have been so deliberately, systematically repressed (unsurprisingly, considering…), its constitutional court could yet rule that the Lisbon Treaty – and, by extension, many of the principles of the way the EU currently works – is illegal for providing ways for the German national parliament to be overruled.

And so it is one of the few remaining areas of German law that looks to the German national interest could end up being the brake on the current mode of EU integration, which itself originally started to prevent Germans looking too much to their own national interest.* Whoops!

As much as the anti-Lisbon Treaty crowd have got a bad reputation in certain quarters of the Brussels beltway – not helped by the lunatic fringes to right and left (as so often) being the ones who have shouted the loudest, and the recent announcement of anti-Lisbon party Libertas’ proposed candidates for the EU elections (mostly hard-right and nationalists, making a mockery of the “broad coalition for democratic reform” claims) – the German politicians who have brought this case before the constitutional court do have a point.

After all, if a national parliament (especially one from a country with a population the size of Germany’s) – elected by the people based on long-standing principles of representative democracy – can be overruled by the EU, an organisation whose democratic legitimacy is disputed to say the least, then what place for democracy in Europe?

And so, where the last time German nationalism reared its head to threaten the peace of mind of European states it was in the form of fascist dictatorship, this time German nationalism could well be rising up in the name of democracy. Democracy based around the principle of the nation state (something I can’t profess to be overly happy with), but democracy nonetheless.

The very fact that such a case merits the constitutional court’s attention shows that the legitimacy of EU decisions and powers has not yet been universally – or even legally – acknowledged. The argument that the EU is a method of overruling democracy, meanwhile, will continue to be made as long as the European Parliament remains the weakest of the EU’s principle institutions. (Will the upcoming EU elections reverse the trend for successively declining turnouts and so strengthen the case for the EP to be given more powers? I very much doubt it. It’s a catch-22 – the EP is perceived as being weak, so people don’t bother voting, so its claims to be the people’s voice diminishes along with its ability to assert influence. Such is the joy of EU democracy.)

So I ask yet again – when is the EU going to go for the kind of radical, democratic reform that is so vital for it to maintain support, and stop tinkering about with unsatisfactory compromises like Lisbon and Nice? Without the people behind it, the EU is doomed to fail. If the people were behind it – and had a sufficiently large voice in its decisions – then cases like this German one could never be brought, and complaints about the EU’s democratic deficit would become the preserve of nutters alone.

February 11, 2009
by Nosemonkey
6 Comments

On party politics

Originally posted as a comment to a post at the Local Democracy blog, a brief summary of my dislike of the British system of government/elections. The prime reason why I am still not sure if I’m going to bother to vote in the upcoming EU elections is precisely for the reasons stated below – I don’t like any UK political party. At general and local elections it’s easy – I vote for a candidate. The way EU elections work in the UK, I won’t get that choice when voting for an MEP – I only get to vote for a party.

Anyway, here’s my brief summary of what I don’t like about party politics:

I continue to hate party politics with a passion. Even ignoring the distortions that have come about thanks to whipping and politicians’ reliance on party funds, Labour and Conservatives alike (and arguably the Lib Dems too) really aren’t parties in the old sense any more anyway. There’s no real unifying ideology, just vast coalitions with hugely disparate, often contradictory beliefs, brought together merely by the pursuit of power. What we need is not party politics, but a return to factionalism – lots more smaller, focussed groupings based on clearly-stated beliefs, aims and policy positions. That would give voters a broader, clearer choice, and give a far better indication of just what it is the public is voting for at elections.

But, of course, with first past the post such a system will never come about. It needs a decent system of proportional representation – something hard enough to sell at the best of times, let alone the day after an Israeli general election…

And for proportional representation knockers, my preferred method is something like the single transferable vote system. It’s got a few problems, for sure, but fewer than FPTP in my books. Plus it’s got a good track record.

(For more on electoral reform – including a handy explanation of why Israel’s system of proportional representation is not *ahem* representative of PR as a whole, for when you see Israeli election chaos used in anti-PR arguments – check out the long-running and rather good Make My Vote Count blog.)

February 5, 2009
by Nosemonkey
6 Comments

The Euro and the credit crisis

Interesting analysis from European Voice today:

Some members of the European Monetary Union (EMU) – Ireland and Greece obviously, and Italy, too – are discovering that what the International Monetary Fund (IMF) adjudges a global recession is cruelly exposing their failure in the past ten years to adjust to the rigours of membership of a currency union…

But the idea that any country will quit the EMU unilaterally, while it remains a hard-currency club, is mindless.

Long before the printing presses could be greased up to produce reams of new lira, drachma or punt notes, or ‘secretly’ asked businesses and financial institutions to re-programme their computers for a new era of monetary independence, the stampede of deposits from the banks to safer havens offshore would have triggered an economic meltdown. Forget it. The mechanics of leaving the single-currency area unilaterally and out of weakness, notably the pain of the transition to a new currency regime, make it all but inconceivable.

We are, however, already witnessing the beginnings of a process through which the bright hopes for the single currency of a decade ago could begin to dim. One expert calls it the “re-nationalisation” of EU financial market regulation…

Gordon ‘beggar thy EU neighbour’ Brown, the UK prime minister, has led the way in implementing a 1930s-style competitive devaluation to back up his “British jobs for British workers” jingoism…

Protectionism is rife and Neelie Kroes, the European commissioner for competition, is finding she does not have enough fingers to plug the holes in the dyke that the EU constructed long ago to prevent illicit state aids swamping free competition.

Naturally enough, worth reading in full.

February 4, 2009
by Nosemonkey
1 Comment

How will the downturn affect the EU?

Interesting post from new EU/US politics blog Entangled Alliances, taking a look at the fate of European integration during times of recession, worth a look in full:

Economic slowdowns have historically – almost without exception – led to greater protectionism as each country faces demands from its electorate to shield them from the rising storm of global financial turbulence. This can certainly be applied to the history of European integration; the 1970s and 80s saw a halt to further integration, as well as protectionism…

For European integration itself, the 1970s and early 1980s were termed the ‘doldrum years’, as they saw virtually no new advances in integration during this time. Nevertheless, it still saw the accession of the UK, Denmark and Ireland in 1973, followed by Greece in 1981 and Spain and Portugal in 1986. This suggests that, while deeper integration is off the cards, a widening of the Union is a still a possibility.

This therefore raises two questions: firstly, does a nasty economic downturn really preclude deeper integration? And secondly, should we look forward to another enlargement in the next couple of years?

Nice, handy overview for anyone wanting to catch up.

February 3, 2009
by Nosemonkey
Comments Off on And another promising new EU blog

And another promising new EU blog

This time from the editors of the European Parliament’s own website, with all sorts of hints of interesting new developments in the EU’s previously more or less dire online communications policy. From the early posts, they seem to get it – both tone and approach are altogether different from what we’ve seen from official EU bodies to date.

All of which reminds me – an update of the EU blog directory really is long overdue, especially now that everything seems to be kicking off in the once rather tranquil and under-subscribed world of Euroblogging. I’ll naturally be going through the various new compilations (Bloggingportal.eu, Blogactiv’s blogroll etc.) for ones I’m missing, but suggestions of omissions are most welcome.

(As you’ve no doubt noticed, I’ve been neglecting this place in recent months – arguably in recent years. I’m hoping that the new-found enthusiasm of others may prove to be infectious.)

February 3, 2009
by Nosemonkey
24 Comments

EU blogs and EU elections

Just like busses, you wait ages for some promising new EU-focussed bloggers, and then 81 turn up at once… (And, judging from their photos, they aren’t all youngsters, as I was expecting, and there are even some GIRLS! Shocking! Though once again there appears to be a definite under-representation of non-white faces among their number, which is a shame…)

At any rate, there certainly seems to be a fair amount of enthusiasm for this year’s EU elections on the interweb (see also the promising-looking EU Debate 2009 blog from Cafe Babel) – but will there be any in the real world? And what are these elections going to be all about anyway? Will the economy be on the mend by the summer? It’s doubtful. And in tough economic times, aspirations of working with people in other countries generally take a back seat to knee-jerk protectionism, as is currently being witnessed in the UK with the Lindsay Oil Refinery dispute (after all, there wasn’t so much outrage over the influx of Polish builders at the height of the property boom a couple of years back, was there?).

Convincing sceptical voters of the benefits of European co-operation can be tough even in the good times, so ready do people seem to be to believe the worst. In the bad?

February 3, 2009
by Nosemonkey
1 Comment

Russia to join Nabucco pipeline project?

Well, that could be one way of diffusing the ongoing EU/CIS standoff over EUropean energy supplies that recently saw death and destruction in Georgia and much of southern/eastern Europe lose gas supplies in the middle of winter. EurActiv reports that “Lawmakers in the European Parliament are considering inviting Russia to join the Union’s Nabucco gas pipeline project, to avoid competition with rival projects sponsored by Moscow in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine gas dispute.”

The thing is, though, that Nabucco was designed almost exclusively to cut out Russia’s dominant role in European energy transit, as pointed out (with maps) back in August last year, plus July 2008, February 2008, January 2008, July 2007, and doubtless several dozen other posts.

Could giving Russia a share in the pipeline’s running (and, no doubt, profits) be a sensible solution? Well, yes. Sod the new dawn in EU-US relations that so many have been hoping for with the arrival of Barack Obama in the White House – Europe’s most vital extra-European relationship is not with America, but with Russia (counting Russia as outside Europe solely for the purpose of this post). We may have had a few bitchy slanging matches with the US during the Bush years, but the deterioration in European/Russian relations (and yes, I do mean the whole of Europe, not just EU member states) over the same period has been far more damaging for both parties.

With Putin – seemingly still obsessed with macho nationalistic posturing and apparently unable to stomach entering into genuine partnerships with the West – still pulling the strings, it’s likely going to be another few years before a true rapprochement between Europe and Russia can occur (which still seems odd, Putin having grown up in Russia’s most European city, St Petersburg, and having spent several years working for the KGB in Berlin). But appeals to Russian self-interest and self-esteem are certainly going to be the way to break down the barriers – played right, a Nabucco team-up with Russia could give the Kremlin just the kind of ego-boost it seems to run on. Europe on her knees, begging “Oh, won’t you help us, dear Russia? We can’t do it without you! is guaranteed to give plenty of good propaganda value back home, so has a moderate chance of succeeding.

(Warning – lots of short posts likely to follow on various topics as I continue to catch up on what I’ve missed over the last couple of weeks…)

January 26, 2009
by Nosemonkey
12 Comments

Some advice for new bloggers

With the launch of the laudable Think About It EU blogging competition this past weekend (sorry I couldn’t make it, chaps, etc.), and the neat coincidence of the public launch of the rather promising BloggingPortal.eu cropping up at the same time, four bits of advice to anyone just starting up an EU blog, after almost six moderately successful years of my running one. (Four bits of advice that probably apply to anyone starting up a political blog, for that matter. *cough*Derek Draper*cough*)

1) Write about what interests you

If you set yourself artificial targets (two posts a day, say, or posts on a particular subject on particular days of the week), the structure this affords may help you in the short-term, but in the medium to long-term you’ll get a) bored, b) frustrated, and c) trapped into spending hours researching a subject you know nothing about, just to hit your self-imposed schedule. I’ve also always found that the best blog posts – both mine and other people’s – are the spontaneous, passionate ones. If you blog just because you feel that you ought to, you’ll also most likely end up being boring.

2) Don’t be afraid to write about subjects you know little about

Blogging remains largely an amateur affair, despite its increasingly high profile. Although it’s nice when genuine experts start to blog, the vast majority of (political) bloggers are merely interested citizens – and no decent political system can ever work if those citizens are discouraged from investigating the world around them and the actions of their political representatives. The major benefit of blogging is that it teaches both bloggers and blog readers new things – and nothing new ever comes from retreading old ground. (At least, not often – it’s still worth going over the basics again from time to time, just to make sure they remain the same as you thought they were, as blogging will often lead to gradual shifts in opinions.) Plus, from the point of view of the blogging community as a whole, one blogger’s misunderstanding can often lead to interesting discussions and increased understanding for many.

3) Be prepared to own up when you’ve made a mistake

No one will think any the worse of you for getting something a bit wrong – we’ve all done it, and we’ll all do it again. Everyone will, however, think a lot better of you when you admit your mistakes. The world of blogging is nice like that – honesty is valued, arrogance shunned. It’s almost the opposite of the real world in some respects.

4) Try to be nice

People who leave comments on blogs tend to be a lot more violent in their opinions online than they would be in the real world – especially, it seems, eurosceptics who comment on EU-focussed blogs, but the same is true for left-wingers commenting on right-wing blogs and vice versa (and it can get really messy when party politics gets involved). The temptation is always to respond in kind, or to simply hold up people of opposing political opinions to your own as objects of ridicule. But despite appearances, political opponents can get on amazingly well behind the scenes (both online and in the real world) – the over-the-top rhetoric is usually just for public show. Treat people with differing political opinions to your own nicely and they will often prove to be valuable contributors to the debate that we are all trying to foster – and this can be to everyone’s advantage.

January 16, 2009
by Nosemonkey
1 Comment

I’m off for a couple of weeks

I picked a bad time to be insanely busy, what with the traffic leap brought by the Weblog Awards shortlisting coinciding with the latest round in the Russia/Ukraine gas dispute (something I’ve been keeping an eye on for a few years now), a rumpus over a silly bit of “art”, and now the uproar over the EU’s ban on (some) pesticides (which according to many hysterical parts of the British eurosceptic press is as good as a death warrant for the carrot, giving them another handy load of fruit’n’veg-based nonsense to go on about now that the straight bananas and curvy cucumbers myth’s finally been killed off).

And now I’m buggering off to Japan for two weeks (a trip that will see the number of times I’ve been to Tokyo overtake the number of times I’ve been to Paris, which doesn’t seem right at all).

While I’m gone, the EUtopia Netvibes Universe and EU Blog Directory should keep you entertained – and I’m planning a long-overdue update of these when I get back, so please leave any suggestions for new entries in the comments. I’ve spotted quite a few new EU-centred blogs since the start of the year, but have probably forgotten to take a note of most of them – and there’s about to be a bunch of new ones on the scene courtesy of the Think About It EU blogging competition.

Oh, and after an absence of a few years, it looks like the UK’s got a new pro-Euro campaign. For reasons best known to themselves their report is only available as a (256 page, 4.5 meg) PDF at the moment, and their website is nothing more than a very basic Wordpress job that looks like it was knocked up in 5 minutes, but the list of contributors includes some good names. Should be worth a read – I haven’t had the chance yet, but plan to have a look through on the plane. (If that doesn’t send me to sleep, nothing will…)

Back February. Keep an eye on things for me, eh?

January 14, 2009
by Nosemonkey
8 Comments

2008 Weblog Awards – the results

Not official yet, but looks like Created in Birminham beat Melanie Phillips to the top spot – result! Congrats to them, and to all involved with the site.

This place – officially supporting CiB since the second day of the vote – came in 3rd to last, beating only CiB founder Pete Ashton (who not only also asked all his readers to vote CiB instead, but actively campaigned for last place) and, erm… Iain Dale’s Diary, supposedly one of the most popular British blogs going, with a professed monthly readership somewhere in the region of 20 times what this place gets.

However, this wasn’t just about stopping Melanie Phillips and her repellent (and often bizarre) worldview from being publicly lauded, though that is eminently satisfying.

As Pete Ashton notes (in a top-notch post worth reading in full for anyone interested in the UK blogging scene), this is also about showing

that community blogs like CiB are a good thing that should be supported… to show that a blog that has a supportive community, that encourages sharing, collaboration, communication and which doesn’t take sides in a partisan way is way better than some single issue, ranting, divisive megaphone in the echo chamber

I may well be a political blogger, but that does not mean I like political blogs. The majority are unreadable, unthinking, partisan dross, dominated by dogmatism and ingrained ideological prejudice.

The idea that any political blog is better, more worthy of an award and the associated praise, than a blog like Created in Birmingham – a positive force for good, encouraging creativity and a sense of community while offering an outlet and source of publicity to nascent artists, and thus a real chance to help boost careers and reputations, as well as for its readers to broaden their perspectives and try out new things – is just silly.

The only other blog genuinely worthy of winning in the shortlist (though others on there like Olly’s Onions and The View From Here are certainly well worth a look) was Baldy’s Blog, neatly summarised here:

Young local journalist/web editor gets ill. Complex leukaemia. Starts Blog to describe and explain the disease and treatment. Bone marrow transplant is successful. Post transplant complications set in. Proposes on Christmas eve to long term girlfriend. She accepts. Wedding plans begin in earnest. Fiancee leaves him. Broken heart. Leukaemia comes screaming back. Terminal prognosis. Campaign begins to teach all 17/18 year olds about how simple it is to be a bone marrow donor. Huge petition presented to Downing Street. Support from Gordon Brown, Alan Johnson, Ed Balls. Many media appearances nationally to push campaign. Dies 20 August aged 27. Campaign continues…..and succeeds.

Let’s face it. This is a Blog which has changed lives and which will save lives.

Baldy’s Blog eventually came in 3rd, beaten only by CiB and Phillips, and pipping last year’s winner Neil Clark to the bronze. It should have been higher.

The fact that the wildly successful Phillips – with her regular columns in national newspapers and magazines – even felt the need to campaign for the win (as she did) when there were such worthy alternatives on the shortlist only confirms my low opinion of her. And the fact that the world of political blogs continues to act as if it is all that matters – far-left maniac Neil Clark also remaining on a futile ego-trip campaign to the last, despite it being obvious to all that he had no chance of succeeding – when there are so many far more worthy, far more actively positive blogs out there? Well, that comes as no surprise, but still saddens.

Blogging is just a publishing medium. To say “blogging should be like this, not like that” is a nonsense, as blogging is about whatever individual bloggers want it to be. But blogs do have a brilliant ability to foster new communities, new relationships. Done right, they can bring people together to achieve great things, positive things. Political blogs are mostly about the negative – Melanie Phillips’ more than most.

Both Created in Birmingham and Baldy’s Blog are about creating something positive from blogging – in the case of the latter, creating something positive in the face of immense pain and hardship for the people who run it. This, for me, is what blogging should be about, if it should be about anything. Congratulations to them both.

January 11, 2009
by Nosemonkey
33 Comments

European elections: UK voting intentions

From the invaluable UK Polling Report, we have the first UK voting intention figures for the 2009 European elections, released in today’s Sunday Telegraph.

The results, plus changes from the 2004 EU elections, are as follows:

Conservatives 35% (+8)
Labour 29% (+6)
Liberal Democrats 15% (+/-0)
UKIP 7% (-9)
Green 5% (-1)
British National Party 4% (-1)
Scottish National Party / Plaid Cwmru 4%

As UK Polling Report notes, “this would lead to the Conservatives winning 30 seats (up 3), Labour 24 (up 5), the Liberal Democrats 9 (down 2), the SNP and PC one each and UKIP 4 (down 8). The Greens would lose both their seats, while the BNP would fail to secure one.”

Polling station Please note that the poll was carried out (between the 6th and 8th January) by a web-based polling organisation (YouGov) founded by a former Tory pollster, commissioned by the Tory eurosceptic campaign group Global Vision in partnership with the Tory-linked “small government” campaign group the Taxpayers’ Alliance – and the results were first published in the staunchly eurosceptic, Tory-leaning Telegraph. Whether this means that the questions were loaded and the results skewed is hard to tell, as I haven’t seen the full results or the questions asked. The sample was made up of 2,157 adults.

It is also unclear whether a vote for newly launched pan-EU political party Libertas was an option – or how many people said that they would not be voting at all. Considering turn-out for EU elections in the UK has averaged about 30% in the last two, if the figures above are only based on those who will definitely be voting, the final sample size could be as few as 650 people (30% of 2,157) – statisticians will be able to tell you if that’s statistically significant for a UK population of 61 million. Either way, only 1% is unaccounted for in the above figures, and I very much doubt we’ll see a 99% turnout.

The dramatic drop in UKIP support (with further drops for fellow eurosceptic parties the Greens and the BNP) is one of the biggest points of interest. How to account for it? A pro-Tory bias in the questions from two Conservative-leading organisations conducting the poll, or a general collapse in UKIP support thanks to the party being, well, a bit rubbish? As Polling Report notes,

Back in 2004 YouGov included minor parties like UKIP in the main question prompt and, as a result, ended up over-stating the level of UKIP support – it will be interesting to see exactly how this question was prompted. Either way, how well UKIP will do is a hard one to predict. At the moment they get practically zero publicity in the mainstream media, so a huge drop in support is not a particular surprise. At the last European elections they received a lot of publicity because of Robert Kilroy-Silk, something that won’t be a factor this time… Accorded to the Sunday Telegraph report 10% of those who say they would vote Tory in a general election would vote UKIP in a European election, which implies that straight voting intention questions were also asked.

There were also some more general questions asked about the UK’s relationship with the EU which, as reported in the Telegraph, reveal the following:

16 per cent of voters want Britain simply to withdraw from the EU, while 48 per cent would like to see a much looser relationship, with the government taking back powers from Brussels and ending the supremacy of the European Court of Justice over British law.

Added together this makes 64 per cent in favour of weakening Britain’s ties with the EU, compared with just 22 per cent in favour of keeping the UK’s current full membership including the Lisbon Treaty, which was passed by parliament without a referendum.

Much worth noting there. The mention of “taking back powers from Brussels” (a key Tory promise under David Cameron, though it’s unclear quite how he could achieve this) would suggest a pro-Tory bias to the questioning. The mention of the European Court of Justice is also odd – this is an institution rarely explicitly brought up in the UK EU debate (in fact, it’s more often the non-EU European Court of Human Rights that is bandied about by press and politicians alike), though “the supremacy of European [law]” is a favourite buzz phrase of the eurosceptic right. Please also note the final part of that second paragraph: if “passed by parliament without a referendum” was included in the poll’s own questioning, that’s almost certainly going to result in some pretty hefty result-skewing, as by all accounts the British public was overwhelmingly in favour of a Lisbon Treaty referendum, while remaining overwhelmingly ignorant of its contents.

One final statistic of interest, from the Telegraph:

Some 45 per cent of voters, meanwhile, believe none of the three main political parties adequately reflects their views on Britain’s future relations with the EU

That sounds about right – and you can count me in among that 45%. As EU elections in the UK are based on a party list form of proportional representation, I will not have the option of voting for an individual candidate come June – which is what I usually base my vote on. Given the option of ONLY voting for a party, I find myself genuinely stumped. Indeed, it’s increasingly looking like the upcoming European elections will well be the first elections of any kind for which I have been eligible to vote at which I will reluctantly find myself abstaining.

Yes, you read that right: Despite being one of the most engaged and aware people in the British Isles when it comes to the EU – and arguably one of the most prominent and persistent online advocates for the UK’s continued involvement with the European integration – I may not bother to vote in the EU elections. That’s just about as damning an indictment of the way the EU currently works as you can get.

January 11, 2009
by Nosemonkey
3 Comments

Vote Created in Birmingham

Mad Melanie Phillips has pulled ahead in the Weblog Awards but Created in Birmingham can still stop the gong going to a right-wing harpie who appears to enjoy nothing more than stirring up racial tensions and pandering to the basest prejudices of society while pretending that some of the most wealthy and powerful military-industrial complexes on the planet are the poor, put-upon victims.

Vote now – and (thanks to the flaws of online “democracy”) vote often. To those still voting for me – thanks, you’re very sweet, but even I’m not voting for me any more.