Superb stuff – complete with handy, easy to understand graphs and stuff – showing just how anti-Labour tactical voting in favour of the Lib Dems won’t let the Tories into power, from Cabalamat Journal. A must-read.

“The Tories, on a constant 34% share of the vote, gain the maximum number of seats on a 13% swing from Lab to LD, i.e. where the Labour vote is 24.8% and the Liberal Democrat vote is 32.5%. The maximum seats the Tories get is 301. There will be 646 seats in the next parliament, so to get an overall majority they would need 324; thus, the best the Tories would do is 23 seats short.”

A 13% swing is pretty much unprecedented. It’s not going to happen. As for the Tories?

“A Conservative overall majority is wildly implausible. For it to happen, they would have to poll about 12 points higher than Labour, without the Lib Dem share of the vote rising to steal otherwise-Tory seats… There’s no point in being concerned about a Tory government unless they start consistently polling at least 5 points above Labour, and even then a Tory government is a remote possibility.”

Lest we forget, the best the Tories managed in today’s polls was 1 point behind Labour. But the way the first past the post system and the current make-up of the constituencies work, even if they get an equal share of the popular vote, Labour will still be returned with a majority. The best the Tories have managed to do in the polls so far was a one-off aberration which saw them 5 points ahead about two weeks ago. That’s 7 points less than they need to safely form a government.

So can we now please shut up with the scare tactics?

At the moment I’m still undecided. But as someone who’s pro-EU, the only choice is Labour or Lib Dem. And the more I hear Labour telling me how a vote for the Lib Dems is a vote for the Tories when that’s so blatantly yet another lie, the more I feel tempted to abandon my current anti-war, anti-ID card, anti-detention without trial Labour MP and chuck a vote at Charlie and co.

Update: This site may be handy – lots of pretty graphs and stuff showing opinion poll-based projected results.