Nosemonkey's EUtopia

So much for wishful thinking – I guess after last week’s disappointments I should have learned my lesson by now, but I still keep hoping for some good news from the States. Instead, John Ashcroft is replaced as Attourney General by one of the few people in the world (bar Saddam Hussein, Osama bin Laden and Robert Mugabe) who seems to have an even lower regard for the notions of freedom and civil rights than he does.

Ignore the fact that Alberto Gonzales is hispanic, and that thus his appointment is a great step towards high-office recognition for one of America’s largest minorities, the guy’s a nutter with scant regard for either international or US domestic law.

There is more worrying stuff on Gonzales’ poor judicial record at The Blue Bunny of Battle and Obsidian Wings (both links via Waffle).

This is not a promising development for Bush’s second term, although some are prepared to give him the benefit of the doubt for fear of worse alternatives. The US appears trapped between the Devil and the deep blue sea.

Wall Street may have pinged its collective red braces in glee when Dubya was reinstated, but the rest of the world had better start watching the pennies.

Today, the dollar slumped to a new record low against the Euro, breaching the essential plumb line of $1.30.

America�s trade deficit � already in excess of $50 billion � continues to slump: a fleeting matter for Junior, but a fairly pressing issue for the rest of the world.

Today�s record low is the fourth month in a row that the dollar has slipped. Combined with a rise in oil prices of more than two-thirds this year alone, there�s a lot of worried macro-economists losing serious amounts of sleep tonight.

Ah, but why should we care? Well, for those of us fond of sleeping under a roof and eating two or three times a day, a weak dollar means the increased isolation of American import, which in turn, is a considerable blow to the rest of the world�s export trade.

European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet recently expressed concern about the impact of a weak dollar on European competitiveness describing the rise of the value of the euro as “brutal” � and if Trichet says it�s brutal, it probably is. You don�t get to be president of the ECB if you get a bit shaky about your share prices dipping slightly.

One of the major elements of Junior�s campaign � indeed, the issue which many would argue won him key manufacturing states � was his promise to tackle America�s spiralling trade deficit.

However, having spent four years doing bugger all about it, perhaps it�s time somebody pointed out that it�s hardly likely to be a trend reversed overnight.

In the meantime, European trade had better start looking at that lucrative Inuit market�

As expected, Jack McConnell‘s plans to ban smoking in enclosed public spaces were shooed through the Scottish Executive today.

Smokers all over the country are, unsurprisingly, tearing their hair out at the thought of not being able to have a fag and a pint and the anti-fag lobby are smugly patting themselves on the back for ridding Scotland of the evil weed. To hell, of course, with all those stuck in the middle who, quite reasonably, would prefer not to have fag ash flicked over their pasta, but really don’t object all that much to the idea of smokers lighting up in clubs and bars.

The First Minister’s argument is that not only will the ban improve the general health of Scots, but it will also encourage smokers to quit.

Really? Not according to statistics in countries across the world that have already limited or banned smoking.

Tobacco advertising has been banned in Norway for more than 30 years, smoking in public was banned in June, yet one in three people smoke – and there has been a recent rise in tobacco-related deaths. A packet of cigarettes in Norway, incidentally, costs �6.

The Australians made the decision to ban smoking on some of the country’s beaches – out of doors, for heaven’s sake – yet have made no effort to tackle the population’s ever-increasing alcohol-related problems.

Even France – home of the stinkiest fags known to man – made no dent on their smoking statistics by raising the price of fags by 20%.

Ireland is the closest comparison to the Scottish situation – publicans admit that they’ve seen a heavy dent in trade. Yes, everyone goes outside to smoke – but that also means they drink more slowly and they’re further away from the bar.*

While no-one could legitimately argue that smoking is a good, clean, healthy family past-time, isn’t it time the government were honest about these bans? If politicians are really going to get tough on health issues, let’s ban booze, cars, fireworks, E-numbers and those fizzy sweets with every chemical ever invented bunged in.

McConnell’s on record about how hard he found it to quit – which makes Scotland’s ban look like the ultimate revenge of the ex-smoker.

Smoking prohibitions have very little to do with public health – and a whole lot to do with getting the powerful medical lobby on board.

* Update in response to comment:

The Irish Brewers� Association (IBA) claims sales of pints have dropped by 23 million in the last year.

According to industry figures revealed after an IBA survey, the number of pints sold between March and September this year stood at 339 million compared to 362 million in the same period in 2003.

The IBA has blamed the smoking ban for the decline of six per cent in sales.

�The harsh fact of the matter is the figures are down,� said Paddy Jordan, the director of IBA, which represents beer producers such as Heineken and Diageo. �The trend is likely to be 10 percent down for the year.�

Fuck the South.

Beautiful, just beautiful…

(Link via Bloggerheads)

Update: It seems there’s some agreement…

Update 2: More irate Democrats, but do they have a reason to feel ripped off?

Update 3: A very good – if long – article on the voter appeal of George W Bush and another (not as good, but worth a read) on the problem of Post Election Stress and Trauma Syndrome (PESTS.

Update 4: The real American voter division maps – perhaps a new civil war isn’t necessary quite yet…

In a shock move, the King-Emperor Henry IV of Germany was today appointed to replace John Ashcroft, who has reluctantly resigned his post as US Attourney General. The move is seen as an unusual one, as it had been thought that the Bush administration would be keen to keep their allies in the Church onside. Appointing such a vocal champion of the separation of Church and State to such an important post, especially following the ultra-religious Ashcroft’s tenure, may be an olive branch to the Democrats, still smarting from their defeat at the hands of the US evangelical voters.

Speaking from his palace of Goslar in Saxony in a move hailed by the left as a great blow for in the fight for freedom and the salvation of the Constitution, Henry re-applied his words to the tyrannous Pope Gregory VII, first written on 24th January 1274, to his new boss, President George W Bush:

“Thou hast won favour from the common herd by crushing them; thou hast looked upon all of them as knowing nothing, upon thy sole self, moreover, as knowing all things. This knowledge, however, thou hast used not for edification but for destruction… Let another ascend the Oval Office, who shall not practise violence under the cloak of religion, but shall teach the sound doctrine of St. Peter. I Henry, king by the grace of God, do say unto thee, together with all our bishops: Descend, descend, to be damned throughout the ages.”

The departing Ashcroft, in turn, repeated his words from December 2001, used to justify the US PATRIOT Act, “To those who scare peace-loving people with phantoms of lost liberty, my message is this: your tactics only aid terrorists, for they erode our national unity and diminish our resolve. They give ammunition to America’s enemies, and pause to America’s friends.”

He then seemingly denounced the more secular approach of his successor, implying America may be less safe with a less religious man in the post, stating that “Unless the Lord watches over the city, the watchmen stand guard in vain.”

Today, America breathes more easily.

The ex-candidate commissioner Rocco Buttiglione, who resigned after MEPs took his comments about single mothers and homosexuals somewhat badly, is launching a crusade for Catholicism and Christianity, claiming the EU is being taken over by a political correctness which effectively discriminates against traditional religious beliefs.

He’s a got a point, although methinks his campaign may be somewhat less selfless than he is making out. Following Bush‘s election and the first steps towards admitting the primarily Islamic Turkey into the primarily Christian European Union, there has been much speculation about the future role of religion in politics. Some in Europe seem to have started wondering whether this continent – which was, after all, where Christianity got its first foothold – might benefit from some religiously-tinged politics. This approach hasn’t worked too well in Northern Ireland, but there seems to be a drive to ignore the Protestant/Catholic division (and all the little subsects of those major Christian sects) and instead focus on an all-encompassing notion of “Christianity” – which I imagine could end up being somewhat offensive to the regular practitioners to which such a move would be designed to appeal…

Could old Rocco be hoping that he could become a secular European religious figurehead, setting himself up in opposition to namby-pamby liberal political correctness in the same way Bush managed to? I doubt he’s stupid enough to think this is a possibility, but it could do him some good on a smaller, domestic scale – after all, Berlusconi has got to vacate the Italian premiership sooner or later (voluntarily, democratically or through impeachment), and his hugely raised international profile following this latest spat between the Commission and European Parliament could put him in a good position to take over if and when – especially with the similarly-minded Bush in the White House.

Either way, there’s a good interview with Buttiglione here.

(Oh, and sorry for the decline in posts over the last few days – I had a weekend in the country, narrowly avoiding being in a train crash – I luckily took an earlier train – and then got delayed by the aftermath on the way back…)

The healing continues (link to Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire)

French military involvement in Ivory Coast escalates, with very little impact on a world focussed on Iraq and the middle east. But like Iraq, this involvement has not secured the unanimous support of the effected country.

Comparisons with British involvement in Sierra Leone are inevitable – in both cases the European countries involved were former colonial powers. Is this the face of Tony Blair’s EU/African task force?

Africa has highly complex internal politics partially because of the colonial legacy (tribal and ethnic groupings divided almost arbitrarily into countries on the basis of colonial frontiers) and equally complex and potentially volatile relationships with the European countries which ran these territories and decided on these borders.

As America discovered in Somalia in the early ’90s, even intervention conducted with the best of intentions can falter. This is not to say that such intervention is unnecessary – the situation in Sudan could collapse at any time with horrific consequences, more that great care is needed that force is employed in the right way, with proper planning and with great care to avoid the perception that the Imperial mapmakers of the 18th and 19th century have returned.

Perhaps being a bit presumptious – he is after all in a *reversible* coma – but hugely important nonetheless.

Like Fidel Castro (another ailing leader) Arafat both embodies a whole national (or wannabe national) movement and represents an era that has arguably passed. As Castro was a creature of the 50s and 60s, so Arafat’s time was the 80s and 90s and arguably ended with the collapse of the Oslo peace process and the start of the second Intafada. After this point, and despite his iconic status among Palestinians, Arafat was rendered less politically potent than the Pope, who is at least allowed to leave the Vatican, whereas the Palestinian president was under effective house arrest in his Ramallah compound – had he even made vocal overtures to the Israeli authorities it is almost certain that in a post-11th September world and in the midst of a ‘war on terror’ they would have fallen on deaf ears.

However,even those who praise Arafat to the point of hyperbole have a good point: he is the glue that has held together the splintered, loose coalition of religious and political factions that make up the Palestinian ’cause’.

It’s up in the air whether the gathering of vultures (including the current Palestinian prime minister Ahmed Qurei)can reach the sort of mutual settlement which will keep the beleagured Palestinian authority on an even course. If they manage to do this, there’s a chance that with a more moderate outlook (and without the negative history of an Arafat leadership) a more stable relationship can be forged between Palestine and Israel). The alternative is a bitter and divisive civil war.

There is, perhaps, an opportunity for Europe. With neo-con America firmly sat in Israel’s camp there’s a place for a voice of negotiating reason with the Palestinians. At the very least a decent bit of diplomatic weight thrown behind the right faction at the right time could mean peace talks rather than civil war.

After all the chaos (see here, here, here, here, here, here and here), Barroso seems to have made his new choices, as summarised by The Washington times and analysed by EuropeanDemocracy.org.

There have only been two changes of personnel, although there has been a bit of re-jigging. Nonetheless, it should do the trick. More, probably, later…

Bush’s second term as Commander-in-Chief gets off to a good start as an F-16 from the Air National Guard (Bush’s old outfit) strafes a school in New Jersey with cannon fire. Hell – they voted for Kerry, after all…

Meanwhile, Bush says he’s going to spend the political capital the election has given him. A somewhat inadvisable choice of words from the man whose spending plans have given the US such a massive deficit…

Oh, and some more good news for the Dems: John Edwards’ wife has been diagnosed with breast cancer.

But there is at least something to chuckle about: one of the Republicans’ few losers from election night, ex-Reagan man Alan Keyes, has blamed his loss, (which was by 43% – the biggest defeat in Illinois Senate history)) to the new great hope for the Dems, Barack Obama, on everyone except himself – “Republicans in name only”, media bias, all the usual suspects…

Get the unpleasant experience of the last few days off your chest, and remember that we love the US really: (Almost) half of America’s message to the world…

A slightly less US-centric blogging service will return to Europhobia over the next few days. Let’s face it, the post-match analysis is never much fun when you’ve been backing the losing team, and despite what everyone’s been saying, the world doesn’t revolve ENTIRELY around the US. In any case, maybe it doesn’t make that much difference anyway…

At least the US has a proper two party system, and a strong opposition. We’re stuck with Blair until either the Tories or the Lib Dems can shake off their respective images as second-rate parties filled with delusional idiots. There isn’t a hope in hell of this country having an election as closely fought as the Bush/Kerry presidential race for many years to come.

And that’s even more depressing than Bush getting a second term.

Is the Express trying to hint at something with this juxtaposition of Bush family photo and headline?

The depressing reality…

The fear…

And a couple of reasons to be cheerful…

Update: The Mirror does its bit for improving trans-Atlantic relations:

George W Bush has been duly elected by a significant majority of the popular vote and – in all likelihood – by a good margin of the electoral college vote to boot.

My deepest, most heartfelt condolences to any Kerry-voting Americans, but this time I’m afraid you have to accept Bush as your President. If you don’t, the Right will latch on to your “lack of patriotism”, and the Democrats will stand no chance next time round. You have to vocally rally behind Bush, as much as it pains you. You don’t have to actively support him, but at least avoid the Michael Moore style criticism – much like the Guardian’s letter-writing campaign backfired, so too did the heated anti-Bush jibes from the (loosely) Democrat camp. It riled the rednecks, and they came out in force. Don’t do it again, for all our sakes. Michael Moore (and I will point out here that I loved TV Nation and still rate Roger & Me as one of the best documentaries of the last 20 years) please shut up.

What next? The US Supreme Court will, in all likelihood, turn utterly conservative, but beyond that, no one knows. The civil liberties of minority groups may well be curtailed. There may well be more foreign wars. There may well be more terrorist attacks. The Democrats may well be in a state of turmoil and disillusionment which is too great for them to recover in time for the 2008 election.

As far as I can tell, the most likely outcome is that the US will become ever more isolated from the rest of the global community. Most European nations will start to distance themselves ever more from Bush’s administration. The US will increasingly be forced to act alone. This is not a good thing for the US or the world.

Six and a half billion people have to cope with a leader voted for by just fifty-nine million. The fate of the world has been decided by less than 0.01% of its population.

Democracy eh? Isn’t it great?

(Oh, and a note for future reference: no political pollsters have a clue of what they’re talking about, and exit polls reveal nothing.)

A more sober Thursday update in response to comments:

Certainly fight to change Bush’s policies. As John Edwards said last night, “You can be disappointed, but you cannot walk away. This fight has just begun.”

But as John Kerry also said, “We are required now to work together for the good of our country. In the days ahead, we must find common cause. We must join in common effort without remorse or recrimination, without anger or rancor. America is in need of unity and longing for a larger measure of compassion.”

The apparent lack of respect for the office of president was a major cause of the huge Republican turnout. Attacking Bush directly is interpreted by the Right as attacking the presidency. So focus the attacks on his policies. Associate the policies with people behind the scenes whenever possible – and with the neo-cons in the wings, this is pretty easy. In typical fashion, used throughout the ages to avoid directly criticising an unpopular monarch, attack the “bad advisors” but not the monarch himself.

If the Democrats are to stand any chance in 2008, they have to convince those people who voted for Bush out of misplaced patriotism that the Democrats have full respect for the institutions of government. As Kerry said, “I pledge to do my part to try to bridge the partisan divide. I know this is a difficult time for my supporters. But I ask them – all of you – to join me in doing that.”