Site’s still screwed (some kind of issue in the database, by the look of things – a legacy of this place having been around too long), but thought I’d try and cobble something together, what with 2011 – with just 11 posts – being the quietest year on this blog since I started it in 2003.<\/p>\n
Yes, the fewest posts in the *only* year I’ve been blogging on the EU that something genuinely newsworthy and interesting has been coming out of the EU… I know…<\/p>\n
Anyway, in checking the archives to try to fix this place, it turns out there’s not much more to be said on the current euro crisis that I haven’t said already:<\/p>\n
Me on the Euro, September 2004<\/a>:<\/p>\n \u201cThe economics may not be \u201cright\u201d at the moment; they may become \u201cright\u201d at some point in the future \u2013 if we join then, that will be beneficial for Britain. But economic conditions fluctuate unpredictably all the time. No one predicted the Wall Street Crash.<\/p>\n \u201cIn other words, joining the Eurozone will ALWAYS be a risk, just as staying out will always be a risk. Economics is not predictable. So we may as well take the plunge now \u2013 we have no idea how Britain will continue to survive outside the Eurozone, we have no idea what will happen if we join.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n Me on the euro, July 2005<\/a>:<\/p>\n \n\u201cThe real question, of course, is whether the euro can ever achieve all that has been claimed for it. As of yet, there is little in the way of overwhelming evidence to support claims that the euro \u2013 and, importantly, the euro alone \u2013 has been responsible for \u2018price stability, low mortgage rates, easier travel, protection against exchange rate fluctuations and external shocks\u2019<\/p>\n \u2026when it comes to this sort of thing, better the devil you know is a fair enough line to take until the evidence becomes overwhelming. The evidence isn\u2019t yet overwhelming \u2013 hence Gordon still saying his tests aren\u2019t passed \u2013 so no one but the most fervently ideological is going to be convinced. That simple.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n Me on the Euro, July 2008<\/a>:<\/p>\n \u201cEveryone loves a good recession! It\u2019s now a race to the finish line \u2013 who\u2019s going to make it first, the UK or Eurozone? (Far more exciting than the Olympics, this\u2026)<\/p>\n \u2026the real question is longer-term. If the Eurozone enters its first recession at the same time that the EU is doing the headless chicken act over the Irish Lisbon Treaty referendum result, what will be the impact on the long-term viability of the EU as a whole? With the economy looking shaky, will the countries of Europe look to the European Central Bank in Frankfurt or to their own national banks for stabilising measures? And can the ECB \u2013 only in existence for a decade, lest we forget \u2013 handle the tough times as well as the easy? Well, some analysts think the signs point to a big fat no\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n Me on the euro, October 2008<\/a>:<\/p>\n \n\u201cThis whole episode is already going to prove that a single currency simply isn\u2019t enough, that the levels of integration that the EU has so far achieved are simply not enough, that when it comes to the (credit) crunch, we all still look out for number one first, and sod the rest of the continent. Some may even take it as a sign that the old hope that the EU can provide prosperity and insulate from hardship was a false one. It\u2019s all far too early to say\u2026 The only thing that is certain is that no one knows where this is heading. Until we do, I\u2019m going to try and refrain from adding to the reams of inaccurate guesswork.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n Me on the Euro, November 2008<\/a>:<\/p>\n \u201cThis recession is going to be the major test of the idea of the Euro \u2013 if it fails that test, it won\u2019t just be the UK that gets cold feet\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n Me on the Euro, June 2011<\/a>:<\/p>\n “let\u2019s face it, no one knows what\u2019s going to happen and most economic predictions over the last few years have proven utterly mistaken…<\/p>\n here\u2019s my ranking of the likelihood of the various \u201cwhat nexts\u201d I\u2019ve seen mooted, in approximate order of likelihood:<\/p>\n 1) Another Greek bailout Number 1’s already happened. Other than that, has the situation really changed that much – beyond possibly the likelihood of number 6? Is there anything more that needs to be said? Has anyone actually come up with a solution? Have we got any new options?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Site’s still screwed (some kind of issue in the database, by the look of things – a legacy of this place having been around too long), but thought I’d try and cobble something together, what with 2011 – with just … Continue reading
\n2) Greek default & risk of contagion
\n3) Greece leaves the eurozone
\n4) Germany leaves the eurozone
\n5) Dissolve the euro & start again
\n6) Full political integration
\n7) Give up and dissolve the EU
\n8) Britain joins the euro to boost confidence & stability<\/p><\/blockquote>\n